Soda Bay, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

220
FXUS66 KEKA 290702
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1202 AM PDT Thu May 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer weather will continue through late week. Hot
temperatures likely Friday and Saturday for the interior before a
quick trend downward next week. Gusty northerly winds possible this
weekend and early next week.

KEY MESSAGES:

-Moderate to some areas of Major HeatRisk are forecast Friday and
Saturday for the interior

-75% to 95% chance for high temperatures to exceed 100 F in the
warmer interior valleys on Friday

-30% to 60% probability for high temperatures to exceed 100 F in the
warmest interior valleys on Saturday

-Gusty northerly winds over the weekend with moderate to high
chances for gusts over 40 mph Sunday (60%-80%) in the coastal areas
and ridges


&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak front will clip far Northern California early
this morning bringing in some cloud cover. Rain probabilities remain
to our north and west. High temperatures today in the interior are
forecast to be a couple degrees higher than yesterday`s as high
pressure builds back in, with 80s likely in most interior
valleys.The ridge amplifies Friday, with triple digit heat possible
in much of the interior. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected
with some areas of Major HeatRisk. Some uncertainty has arisen with
recent model runs with the influence of marine air. There is a
scenario where some marine air Friday morning can keep dewpoints
higher Friday afternoon. This would lower actual high temperatures a
bit, but also raise humidity and result in higher heat index values.

Models are starting to show the ridge weakening slightly Saturday as
a trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. A larger marine
influence possible in areas closer to the coast, which will bring
both coastal stratus and also somewhat cooler temperatures to some
interior areas. High temperatures will still be warm, but may drop
as much as 5-10 degrees compared to Friday. Eastern Trinity and Lake
Counties are currently forecast to be relatively untouched by marine
influence, with high temperatures similar (or a couple degrees
lower) to Friday and a 40-50% chance for temperatures to reach
triple digits. The combination of the trough to the north and the
upper low to the south will tighten the pressure gradient offshore
and bring gusty winds starting Saturday into early next week. NBM is
currently showing high probabilities for gusty northwesterly winds
in excess of 30 mph for the coastal areas, interior ridgetops, and
Lake County. Dry and windy conditions promote a short period of
elevated fire risk Saturday for the eastern portions of the area.

Winds increase further Sunday with NBM showing a 50-90% chance for
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Interior areas continue to have
decent probabilities for gusts greater than 30 mph. The weakening
trough and breezy winds will likely knock temperatures down further
Sunday, with most interior valleys dropping in the 80s. Monday
maintains high probabilities for gusty northerly wind across the
area. Ensemble clusters do begin to diverge early next week. All
have a trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, but how far
south it digs and if it digs to the west or east is still uncertain.
The chance for precipitation or thunderstorms remains low, but is
possible in some scenarios. The CPC 6-10 Day Outlook continues to
show above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures. JB


&&

.AVIATION...A weak approaching frontal boundary is bringing light
winds and VFR conditions along the coast. There are some stronger
winds over the higher terrain of Mendocino county, but these aren`t
mixing down to the surface. Earlier model runs showed stratus coming
in overnight with the frontal boundary. However the 00Z HREF and the
00Z Mos guidance are generally keeping the coastal sites VFR with
occasional periods of MVFR. VFR conditions are expected through
today once any lingering morning clouds move through. However, the
HREF is showing some slightly elevated probabilities of VFR conditions
just off the coast and these could briefly make it into KACV in the
afternoon. Winds will be breezy this afternoon, but still only around
10 to 15 kt at the terminals. Tonight it is possible we could see
some stratus return, but the HREF probabilities don`t really
increase much until after 06Z. MKK


&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas remain light this morning, around 5 to 10
kt and seas 5 feet at 10 seconds. By mid or late morning stronger
northerly winds are expected to start to build in from the west.
These are expected to increase to around 20 to 25 kt, but these
stronger winds will generally remain 5 to 10 miles offshore. The
exception will be in the lee of Cape Mendocino where winds may reach
30kt. Thursday night and Friday morning these winds are expected to
remain fresh to strong and move closer to the coast by the
afternoon.

Saturday strong to near gale force winds are possible with these
most likely south of Cape Mendocino. Have added gale watches to
highlight this. Saturday night and Sunday strong gales are likely
with the ECMWF, CMC, and GFS all showing close to 40 kt sustained
winds. Confidence is increasing on these as model agreement
continues to improve. The strongest winds are expected to be Sunday
afternoon or evening. There is some model guidance, including the
ECMWF model, showing that these will come in slightly later on
Sunday. Confidence is growing that this may be an extended period of
gale force winds. Some of the models are snow showing these lasting
through Tuesday afternoon. MKK


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for CAZ105-106-
     110-113.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 10 PM PDT Saturday for
     CAZ107-108-111-114-115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     PZZ450-470.

     Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for PZZ455-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 7 PM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 1 PM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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